New York’s primary: What we'll know and when we’ll know it
In New York, you are consistently aggressive for absorption with something bigger, flashier and added exciting, and Tuesday's primary is no different: Politicians accept to grab the absorption of Gotham association who may be focused on the 7 p.m. alpha of the hometown Rangers NHL playoff bold adjoin the Pittsburgh Penguins. There is aswell a night baseball bold at Yankees Stadium. |
| New York’s primary: What we'll know and when we’ll know it |
What we'll apperceive early
It is actual accessible Donald Trump will be declared the statewide champ in New York anon afterwards 9 p.m., bold accessible polling has been accurate. Every April poll has apparent him with a advance of at atomic 20 allotment credibility — and in abounding surveys it's added than 30 — so if those margins buck out, networks should be able to alarm the chase appealing quickly.
Hillary Clinton has aswell apparent a abundant advance in every accessible poll — about amid 10 and 15 allotment credibility — but Bernie Sanders' aggregation thinks he may do bigger than that. If he can accumulate the allowance beneath 10%, it ability be appealing backward Tuesday night afore this chase gets called.
A attenuated defeat would be a acceptable befalling for Sanders to acknowledge that he is beyond expectations ... but that may not advice him actual abundant in the chase for the Democratic nomination. Clinton already leads Sanders by about 250 apprenticed assembly (not counting her superdelegate advantage of added than 430), so he needs to win big to accomplish a cavity in her margin.
What we will not apperceive for awhile
Since New York's agent administration arrangement is so complicated in both parties, it is traveling to be a while afore we apperceive the final agent calculation out of the state. Both Republicans and Democrats deliver a statewide block of assembly as able-bodied as a pot of assembly for anniversary of New York's 27 aldermanic districts. That agency there are absolutely 28 altered challenge that charge to be tallied afore we apperceive the agent outcomes.
Making affairs worse, while Republicans accolade three assembly per aldermanic district, Democrats accolade four, 5 or six assembly depending on the district. While Democratic assembly are broadcast on a proportional basis, Republican assembly in any of the 28 contests are winner-take-all if a applicant takes over 50% of the vote. With all of that algebraic to be done, it may be some canicule afore we apperceive absolutely how abounding assembly everybody walks abroad with.
What we anticipate we'll know
1- Can Hillary Clinton deeply exhausted Bernie Sanders in a Democratic challenge for the aboriginal time aback Arizona's March 22 primary? While she has maintained a ample agent advance during her accident streak, she needs to get off the schneid appealing soon.
2- Can Donald Trump win New York by a big abundant allowance to put him aback on clue to win the Republican choice after a attic action at the July convention? Trump is about 500 assembly abbreviate of the absolute he needs to win the nomination; Ted Cruz is not absolutely 700 assembly short. With 95 Republican assembly at stake, Trump could accomplish a above footfall advanced Tuesday if he can run the table in his home state.
3- Can John Kasich win assembly or is he just arena spoiler? The Ohio governor has alone won his home accompaniment and still has beneath assembly than Marco Rubio, who alone out of the chase a ages ago. Kasich is active additional to Trump in a lot of polls, but New York Republican rules crave a applicant to win 20% of the vote to authorize for delegates. In a "Trump v. Non-Trump" race, Cruz and Kasich may be aggressive to beating anniversary added out of agent contenti
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