Lessons of Iraq Loom Over Obama’s Decision to Keep Troops in Afghanistan, As he described the factors that went into his decision to keep American troops in Afghanistan, the one word President Obama did not mention on Thursday was Iraq.
Four years ago, he stuck to his plan to pull out of Iraq, only to watch the country collapse back into sectarian strife and a renewed war with Islamic extremists. Facing a similar situation in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama has opted not to follow a similar course.
Whether keeping a residual American force in Iraq would have made a difference is a point of contention, but the president decided not to take a chance this time. In reversing his plan to pull out of Afghanistan by the end of next year, Mr. Obama abandoned his desired legacy of ending the two wars he inherited in the hopes of avoiding a repeat of the meltdown in Iraq.While not openly drawing any lessons from the Iraq withdrawal, Mr. Obama tried to draw an implicit distinction by emphasizing that the new Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani, unlike the Baghdad government in 2011, still supports an American military presence and has taken the legal steps to make it possible.“In the Afghan government, we have a serious partner who wants our help,” Mr. Obama said in his televised statement. “And the majority of the Afghan people share our goals. We have a bilateral security agreement to guide our cooperation.”
Lisa Monaco, his homeland security and counterterrorism adviser, later addressed the comparison during a conference call with reporters. “The difference with 2011 is clear,” she said. “The Afghan government has asked us to stay, has invited us in and wants to work with us,” she said.
On Iraq, the Obama administration and the government of Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, then the prime minister, had negotiated over the possibility of keeping thousands of American troops there after 2011 but were bogged down in a dispute over a legal agreement limiting liability for American forces. Ultimately both sides gave up and decided to stick to the original schedule for a 2011 withdrawal enshrined in an agreement reached between President George W. Bush and Mr. Maliki at the end of 2008.
Mr. Obama then went on the campaign trail seeking re-election boasting about pulling out all troops from Iraq. But without an American presence, Mr. Maliki turned increasingly sectarian, repressing Sunnis and aligning with Iran, which seemed to encourage the rise of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Mr. Obama has since sent back about 3,000 American troops to help advise and assist a new Iraqi government’s fight with the Islamic State.
Similarly, despite years of fighting in Afghanistan and a temporary surge of American troops at the start of Mr. Obama’s presidency, the Taliban has made a comeback, as underscored by the brief takeover of the city of Kunduz, and the Islamic State has begun making inroads as well.
Mr. Obama has made it clear he is loath to commit American military forces to the Middle East, especially ground troops, deeming it a largely losing proposition that costs American lives without fixing the problems being addressed. And he repeated on Thursday that he opposes “endless war.”
But Afghanistan is still seen as more directly tied to American interests than Iraq or Syria, since it was the base from which Al Qaeda planned its attack on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001. And Mr. Obama does not want to pass along to his successor a fraying situation in Afghanistan on top of the current turmoil in Syria and Iraq.
The continued presence of 9,800 American troops next year and then 5,500 after that — down from more than 100,000 at its peak — may make only a modest difference militarily. But Mr. Obama is gambling that it matters politically by showing that the United States is not giving up on the Kabul government and leaving a vacuum for other forces to fill.
“We’ve made an enormous investment in a stable Afghanistan,” Mr. Obama said. “Afghans are making difficult but genuine progress. This modest but meaningful extension of our presence — while sticking to our current, narrow missions — can make a real difference. It’s the right thing to do.”
Four years ago, he stuck to his plan to pull out of Iraq, only to watch the country collapse back into sectarian strife and a renewed war with Islamic extremists. Facing a similar situation in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama has opted not to follow a similar course.Whether keeping a residual American force in Iraq would have made a difference is a point of contention, but the president decided not to take a chance this time. In reversing his plan to pull out of Afghanistan by the end of next year, Mr. Obama abandoned his desired legacy of ending the two wars he inherited in the hopes of avoiding a repeat of the meltdown in Iraq.While not openly drawing any lessons from the Iraq withdrawal, Mr. Obama tried to draw an implicit distinction by emphasizing that the new Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani, unlike the Baghdad government in 2011, still supports an American military presence and has taken the legal steps to make it possible.“In the Afghan government, we have a serious partner who wants our help,” Mr. Obama said in his televised statement. “And the majority of the Afghan people share our goals. We have a bilateral security agreement to guide our cooperation.”
Lisa Monaco, his homeland security and counterterrorism adviser, later addressed the comparison during a conference call with reporters. “The difference with 2011 is clear,” she said. “The Afghan government has asked us to stay, has invited us in and wants to work with us,” she said.
On Iraq, the Obama administration and the government of Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, then the prime minister, had negotiated over the possibility of keeping thousands of American troops there after 2011 but were bogged down in a dispute over a legal agreement limiting liability for American forces. Ultimately both sides gave up and decided to stick to the original schedule for a 2011 withdrawal enshrined in an agreement reached between President George W. Bush and Mr. Maliki at the end of 2008.
Mr. Obama then went on the campaign trail seeking re-election boasting about pulling out all troops from Iraq. But without an American presence, Mr. Maliki turned increasingly sectarian, repressing Sunnis and aligning with Iran, which seemed to encourage the rise of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Mr. Obama has since sent back about 3,000 American troops to help advise and assist a new Iraqi government’s fight with the Islamic State.
Similarly, despite years of fighting in Afghanistan and a temporary surge of American troops at the start of Mr. Obama’s presidency, the Taliban has made a comeback, as underscored by the brief takeover of the city of Kunduz, and the Islamic State has begun making inroads as well.
Mr. Obama has made it clear he is loath to commit American military forces to the Middle East, especially ground troops, deeming it a largely losing proposition that costs American lives without fixing the problems being addressed. And he repeated on Thursday that he opposes “endless war.”
But Afghanistan is still seen as more directly tied to American interests than Iraq or Syria, since it was the base from which Al Qaeda planned its attack on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001. And Mr. Obama does not want to pass along to his successor a fraying situation in Afghanistan on top of the current turmoil in Syria and Iraq.
The continued presence of 9,800 American troops next year and then 5,500 after that — down from more than 100,000 at its peak — may make only a modest difference militarily. But Mr. Obama is gambling that it matters politically by showing that the United States is not giving up on the Kabul government and leaving a vacuum for other forces to fill.
“We’ve made an enormous investment in a stable Afghanistan,” Mr. Obama said. “Afghans are making difficult but genuine progress. This modest but meaningful extension of our presence — while sticking to our current, narrow missions — can make a real difference. It’s the right thing to do.”
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