Think Venus Williams can't beat Serena Williams at U.S. Open? Think again, Now comes the hard part: Does Venus Williams even have a shot against sister Serena Tuesday night in their U.S. Open quarterfinal?
Yes, actually, she does.
On paper, the numbers stack rather heavily in Serena's favor. The Williams sisters have met 26 times previously, with Serena winning 15 matches to Venus' 11. Little sister Serena has won six out of their last seven meetings and hasn't lost to Venus in a Grand Slam match since Venus won the Wimbledon final in 2008, the last major title the elder Williams sister won.
Yet Venus defeated Serena just over a year ago in Montreal, a high quality, three-set affair on a day when Venus was feeling good energy-wise and hitting her targets when she went for her biggest shots.
"She played really good in that match," Serena said Sunday. "She served well; she did everything well. I won the first set barely; probably shouldn't have. She came back and never gave up."
That match, broken down by tennis analyst Craig O'Shannessy, relied on something only Venus has in tennis: Insider knowledge of Serena's game."It starts with the premise that if anyone knows the secrets to Serena, her sister does," O'Shannessy told USA TODAY Sports. "To do something that different [against Serena], you almost have to have inside information, which is what Venus does. This is all insider trading."
The serve
That could be the biggest key for Venus on Tuesday night: the serve. Serena has struggled with her own delivery in this tournament, smashing down 26 aces but committing 17 double faults. Venus, on the other hand, has hit 33 aces to just 14 double faults. It will be key for Venus to win most of the points off her own first serve (she's 75% for the tournament) and try and make inroads against Serena's (84% on first-serve points won).
O'Shannessy pointed out that Venus has – and needs to – make it a habit to serve to Serena's forehand, which has proved less lethal as a response.
"In Montreal last year, Venus targeted Serena's forehand to beat her," he said. "While most players play away from the forehand, Venus attacked it at will."
O'Shannessy used Montreal stats as an example: There, Venus served 24 of 35 second serves to the Serena forehand, winning nearly 60% of those points, a percentage that O'Shannessy called "unheard of" against Serena. He concluded: "[Venus] not only went there a lot, she won there a lot as well. It was a gutsy move."
A controlled aggression
Of the 438 points she's played, Serena has hit 106 winners, nearly one in four. Venus, however, has more winners in total (129) over 601 points played. Venus serves herself well to go for a bigger ball earlier, keeping points shorter and (she hopes) producing a winner early in the rally. The longer the point goes, the better chance a slightly more agile Serena comes out on top of it. Venus doesn't want that.
The slump factor
Serena is known to zone in during the second week of a Slam, but Venus will be helped if the world No. 1 is just a touch off. Serena was particularly tight in a second round win over Kiki Bertens, then needed to come from behind to beat fellow American Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the third round. Should Serena be misfiring, Vevnus will look to take advantage of unforced errors and put even more pressure on a sister who is chasing history.
That unspoken pressure
Serena says she is ignoring all the talk of the Grand Slam – that she's just here to play the U.S. Open and defend her title in New York – but how can this match feel normal compared to the rest? Serena and Venus have played on several historic occasions, but this one – with the Grand Slam squarely in Serena's sight – might be the most pressure-packed.
A sisterly disregard
Some credit a portion of Serena's success to her unmatched fire on court, quite the opposite of the calm, even-keeled demeanor Venus plays with. Venus will need have her own silent fury on Tuesday night, going after every ball and every point with total disregard for her sister – and what she's trying to achieve.
Yes, actually, she does.
On paper, the numbers stack rather heavily in Serena's favor. The Williams sisters have met 26 times previously, with Serena winning 15 matches to Venus' 11. Little sister Serena has won six out of their last seven meetings and hasn't lost to Venus in a Grand Slam match since Venus won the Wimbledon final in 2008, the last major title the elder Williams sister won.
Yet Venus defeated Serena just over a year ago in Montreal, a high quality, three-set affair on a day when Venus was feeling good energy-wise and hitting her targets when she went for her biggest shots.
"She played really good in that match," Serena said Sunday. "She served well; she did everything well. I won the first set barely; probably shouldn't have. She came back and never gave up."
That match, broken down by tennis analyst Craig O'Shannessy, relied on something only Venus has in tennis: Insider knowledge of Serena's game."It starts with the premise that if anyone knows the secrets to Serena, her sister does," O'Shannessy told USA TODAY Sports. "To do something that different [against Serena], you almost have to have inside information, which is what Venus does. This is all insider trading."
The serve
That could be the biggest key for Venus on Tuesday night: the serve. Serena has struggled with her own delivery in this tournament, smashing down 26 aces but committing 17 double faults. Venus, on the other hand, has hit 33 aces to just 14 double faults. It will be key for Venus to win most of the points off her own first serve (she's 75% for the tournament) and try and make inroads against Serena's (84% on first-serve points won).
O'Shannessy pointed out that Venus has – and needs to – make it a habit to serve to Serena's forehand, which has proved less lethal as a response.
"In Montreal last year, Venus targeted Serena's forehand to beat her," he said. "While most players play away from the forehand, Venus attacked it at will."
O'Shannessy used Montreal stats as an example: There, Venus served 24 of 35 second serves to the Serena forehand, winning nearly 60% of those points, a percentage that O'Shannessy called "unheard of" against Serena. He concluded: "[Venus] not only went there a lot, she won there a lot as well. It was a gutsy move."
A controlled aggression
Of the 438 points she's played, Serena has hit 106 winners, nearly one in four. Venus, however, has more winners in total (129) over 601 points played. Venus serves herself well to go for a bigger ball earlier, keeping points shorter and (she hopes) producing a winner early in the rally. The longer the point goes, the better chance a slightly more agile Serena comes out on top of it. Venus doesn't want that.
The slump factor
Serena is known to zone in during the second week of a Slam, but Venus will be helped if the world No. 1 is just a touch off. Serena was particularly tight in a second round win over Kiki Bertens, then needed to come from behind to beat fellow American Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the third round. Should Serena be misfiring, Vevnus will look to take advantage of unforced errors and put even more pressure on a sister who is chasing history.
That unspoken pressure
Serena says she is ignoring all the talk of the Grand Slam – that she's just here to play the U.S. Open and defend her title in New York – but how can this match feel normal compared to the rest? Serena and Venus have played on several historic occasions, but this one – with the Grand Slam squarely in Serena's sight – might be the most pressure-packed.
A sisterly disregard
Some credit a portion of Serena's success to her unmatched fire on court, quite the opposite of the calm, even-keeled demeanor Venus plays with. Venus will need have her own silent fury on Tuesday night, going after every ball and every point with total disregard for her sister – and what she's trying to achieve.
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