The Democrats best pickup opportunities in Governor’s races for 2013 and 2014, The 2013 and 2014 elections offer plenty of pickup opportunities for the Democrats in gubernatorial races. The Republican Tea Party wave in 2010 put Republican Governors in several state houses across the nation and 2014 is an opportunity for Democrats to chip back into the Republicans’ gains from 2010. If you add in the races in New Jersey and Virginia that will be held in 2013, the Democrats have several Republican held Governors’ seats to target this year and next. Right now, Republicans hold 30 of the nation’s Governorships to 19 for Democrats and one seat for Independent Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island. Most of those seats (38 of 50) will be contested in 2013 and 2014. The Democrats best chances to pick up seats are in the following races, in approximate order:
1. Rick Scott (R-FL): Governor Scott is one of the most unpopular Governors in the nation with an approval rating of 33/57 (meaning 33 percent of Florida voters approve of his performance as Governor and 57 percent disapprove). With his approval rating so upside down in a state as evenly split as Florida, those numbers are devastating for his re-election chances. Even his desperate flip flop to moderate his position on accepting Medicaid expansion has not seemed to help. Compounding Scott’s misery, a recent poll has Former Republican Charlie Crist (now a Democrat) defeating him 52-40 head to head. Scott does not fare too much better against other Democrats, should Crist choose not to run. The election is still over a year away, so Scott’s fortunes could rebound, but at this point he looks like he is all but destined to be removed by Florida’s unhappy electorate. His first term could very well be his last.
2. Tom Corbett (R-PA): Another Republican Governor, who won in 2010 when the Tea Party wave was at its crest, but now must defend his seat in a state that Obama carried twice, is Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett. Like Scott, Corbett has become deeply unpopular in his state, sporting a (-14) approval rating at 34/48. Congresswoman Alyson Schwartz has already announced her intention to run as a Democrat, and she is in a good position to capture this seat from the unpopular Corbett.
3. Paul LePage (R-ME): LePage’s Tea Party flavored politics are out of sync with Maine voters and he owes his 2010 victory to a three way split when Independent Elliott Cutler split votes with the Democratic candidate and enabled LePage to squeeze by with a victory. LePage is very unpopular (41/52) but his chances of political survival may hinge upon whether Cutler enters the race again and helps split the center-left vote in two, giving LePage a chance to eke out another improbable victory. In a head to head matchup LePage loses to Democrats by double digits, but in a three way race he has a path to victory.
4. Open Seat (R-VA): Governor Bob McDonell is not running for re-election so Republicans appear likely to end up with controversial right-wing Attorney General Ken Cucinelli running against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in this 2013 contest. A series of polls from a variety of polling outfits have shown this race to be a virtual tie, and there is every reason to expect it to remain close through the duration of the spring and summer.
5. Rick Snyder (R-MI): Like many Republican Governors, Rick Snyder is having a hard time getting people to like him. Whether it was his decision to impose dictatorial emergency manager laws in many of the state’s cities or his decision to renege on his campaign promise that he would protect collective bargaining, his decisions have not endeared him to Michigan voters, and his popularity is underwater at 41/49. Democrats have yet to field a strong opponent, but if they do, Snyder is in trouble.
6. Lincoln Chafee (I-RI): The Rhode Island race is hard to categorize. Chafee is a former Republican who is now an Independent, but whose policies now tend to be more popular with Democrats than they are with Republicans. In addition, Chafee is rumored to be considering switching to the Democratic Party when he runs for re-election. So if he is defeated by a Democrat or if he switches parties and wins as a Democrat, this will qualify as a Democratic gain. The problem for Chafee is that he is very unpopular in Rhode Island (28/68), so his odds of re-election, like LePage’s, may depend upon a three-way race to keep him above water, because in a two way race he might well lose to either a Republican or a Democrat.
7. John Kasich (R-OH): Kasich is often listed among unpopular first-term GOP Governors like Scott, Snyder, LePage and Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, who swung too far right after winning in 2010, and alienated their constituents. Scott, Snyder and LePage may very well pay a political price for their rightward drift, but Wisconsin’s Walker survived a recall effort and looks less endangered. Like Scott Walker, John Kasich appears more apt to survive than lose at this juncture, with his approval ratings rebounding to 50/35 after being in the ditch for much of 2011 and 2012. Still his popularity numbers have been volatile enough that there is no guarantee that they will not plummet again before election day in 2014.
8. Nikki Haley (R-SC): In a state as conservative as South Carolina it may seem peculiar for the Governor to be placed on a list of Democratic pickup opportunities. However, Haley sports a mediocre 40/43 job approval rating and she will have to survive a rematch against Vincent Sheheen who she only beat 51.0-47.4 in the very strong Republican year of 2010.
9. Brian Sandoval (R-NV): Sandoval won easier than expected in 2010, but Nevada is a state that has been changing demographically and trending blue over the past decade, so Sandoval will have to fight to retain his seat.
10. Susana Martinez (R-NM): At this time Martinez is very popular (62/34) so her chances of retaining her seat seem quite good. Attorney General Gary King has announced his intentions to run as the Democratic candidate. Because of New Mexico’s blue lean, King has the potential to be a strong candidate who can win if Martinez’s popularity numbers go south in 2014. Right now Martinez looks more than capable of retaining her seat, but a lot can happen in eighteen months.
Other races to watch: At least five additional races look like they could be competitive for Democrats under the right circumstances. Scott Walker, while difficult to unseat is not invincible in Wisconsin. Terry Branstad in Iowa and Rick Perry in Texas also appear difficult to beat but each could fall against the right opponent in the right political environment. Arizona’s race also bears watching, and although New Jersey’s Chris Christie is immensely popular right now, New Jersey is a blue enough state that his fortunes could change even if right now he seems like a shoo-in for another term. Predictions this far out are exceedingly difficult, so as the political environment changes so will the relative prospects of individual candidates. However, this is an assessment of the best races for Democrats to target based on the information available today.
1. Rick Scott (R-FL): Governor Scott is one of the most unpopular Governors in the nation with an approval rating of 33/57 (meaning 33 percent of Florida voters approve of his performance as Governor and 57 percent disapprove). With his approval rating so upside down in a state as evenly split as Florida, those numbers are devastating for his re-election chances. Even his desperate flip flop to moderate his position on accepting Medicaid expansion has not seemed to help. Compounding Scott’s misery, a recent poll has Former Republican Charlie Crist (now a Democrat) defeating him 52-40 head to head. Scott does not fare too much better against other Democrats, should Crist choose not to run. The election is still over a year away, so Scott’s fortunes could rebound, but at this point he looks like he is all but destined to be removed by Florida’s unhappy electorate. His first term could very well be his last.
2. Tom Corbett (R-PA): Another Republican Governor, who won in 2010 when the Tea Party wave was at its crest, but now must defend his seat in a state that Obama carried twice, is Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett. Like Scott, Corbett has become deeply unpopular in his state, sporting a (-14) approval rating at 34/48. Congresswoman Alyson Schwartz has already announced her intention to run as a Democrat, and she is in a good position to capture this seat from the unpopular Corbett.
3. Paul LePage (R-ME): LePage’s Tea Party flavored politics are out of sync with Maine voters and he owes his 2010 victory to a three way split when Independent Elliott Cutler split votes with the Democratic candidate and enabled LePage to squeeze by with a victory. LePage is very unpopular (41/52) but his chances of political survival may hinge upon whether Cutler enters the race again and helps split the center-left vote in two, giving LePage a chance to eke out another improbable victory. In a head to head matchup LePage loses to Democrats by double digits, but in a three way race he has a path to victory.
4. Open Seat (R-VA): Governor Bob McDonell is not running for re-election so Republicans appear likely to end up with controversial right-wing Attorney General Ken Cucinelli running against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in this 2013 contest. A series of polls from a variety of polling outfits have shown this race to be a virtual tie, and there is every reason to expect it to remain close through the duration of the spring and summer.
5. Rick Snyder (R-MI): Like many Republican Governors, Rick Snyder is having a hard time getting people to like him. Whether it was his decision to impose dictatorial emergency manager laws in many of the state’s cities or his decision to renege on his campaign promise that he would protect collective bargaining, his decisions have not endeared him to Michigan voters, and his popularity is underwater at 41/49. Democrats have yet to field a strong opponent, but if they do, Snyder is in trouble.
6. Lincoln Chafee (I-RI): The Rhode Island race is hard to categorize. Chafee is a former Republican who is now an Independent, but whose policies now tend to be more popular with Democrats than they are with Republicans. In addition, Chafee is rumored to be considering switching to the Democratic Party when he runs for re-election. So if he is defeated by a Democrat or if he switches parties and wins as a Democrat, this will qualify as a Democratic gain. The problem for Chafee is that he is very unpopular in Rhode Island (28/68), so his odds of re-election, like LePage’s, may depend upon a three-way race to keep him above water, because in a two way race he might well lose to either a Republican or a Democrat.
7. John Kasich (R-OH): Kasich is often listed among unpopular first-term GOP Governors like Scott, Snyder, LePage and Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, who swung too far right after winning in 2010, and alienated their constituents. Scott, Snyder and LePage may very well pay a political price for their rightward drift, but Wisconsin’s Walker survived a recall effort and looks less endangered. Like Scott Walker, John Kasich appears more apt to survive than lose at this juncture, with his approval ratings rebounding to 50/35 after being in the ditch for much of 2011 and 2012. Still his popularity numbers have been volatile enough that there is no guarantee that they will not plummet again before election day in 2014.
8. Nikki Haley (R-SC): In a state as conservative as South Carolina it may seem peculiar for the Governor to be placed on a list of Democratic pickup opportunities. However, Haley sports a mediocre 40/43 job approval rating and she will have to survive a rematch against Vincent Sheheen who she only beat 51.0-47.4 in the very strong Republican year of 2010.
9. Brian Sandoval (R-NV): Sandoval won easier than expected in 2010, but Nevada is a state that has been changing demographically and trending blue over the past decade, so Sandoval will have to fight to retain his seat.
10. Susana Martinez (R-NM): At this time Martinez is very popular (62/34) so her chances of retaining her seat seem quite good. Attorney General Gary King has announced his intentions to run as the Democratic candidate. Because of New Mexico’s blue lean, King has the potential to be a strong candidate who can win if Martinez’s popularity numbers go south in 2014. Right now Martinez looks more than capable of retaining her seat, but a lot can happen in eighteen months.
Other races to watch: At least five additional races look like they could be competitive for Democrats under the right circumstances. Scott Walker, while difficult to unseat is not invincible in Wisconsin. Terry Branstad in Iowa and Rick Perry in Texas also appear difficult to beat but each could fall against the right opponent in the right political environment. Arizona’s race also bears watching, and although New Jersey’s Chris Christie is immensely popular right now, New Jersey is a blue enough state that his fortunes could change even if right now he seems like a shoo-in for another term. Predictions this far out are exceedingly difficult, so as the political environment changes so will the relative prospects of individual candidates. However, this is an assessment of the best races for Democrats to target based on the information available today.
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